Lies, damned lies, and poll numbers: How McCain and Palin win next Tuesday.

October 29, 2008

Buying salsa in Albuquerque: still ¡muy picante!

The most accurate 2004 presidential poll was Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP, which predicted Bush’s margin of victory (over Kerry) within three-tenths of one percent of the actual outcome. No other pollster was so accurate.

IBD/TIPP now calls the national race between McCain and Obama as a 2.8% Obama lead, extremely close and well within the margin of error, and notes a slow but steady movement toward McCain/Palin in the final two weeks:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx

These data suggest what I have suspected for weeks: the pro-Obama mainstream media and pollsters are cooking their poll numbers by deliberately overestimating youth and black turnout, Democrat over GOP voter identification, and the percentage of undecideds who will break for Obama. (You’ll note that IBD/TIPP puts undecideds at 8.8% — that’s huge, and rely upon it that many of them, being cautious and hesitant to make a mistake, won’t suddenly embrace risk and vote Obama when they finally get in the polling booth.)

The bottom line: The mainstream media, desperate to get Obama elected, are trying to suppress independent and Republican turnout and to demoralize McCain/Palin voters. Ignore them. The race is extremely close, as the Obama campaign well knows; it continues to campaign hard especially in Colorado. If Colorado, which reliable polling says is right now a dead heat, goes McCain/Palin then they will almost certainly win the national election.

Or, if you prefer Gallup, its poll now shows an even closer race, 49% Obama to 47% McCain, using their traditional (and therefore more reliable) model of likely voters:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

The expanded model relies, unwisely, on the assumption that there will be a huge upswing in the under-30 turnout, and in first-time voters. We’ve heard the same confident predictions in the past two election cycles — and in both, Gore and Kerry, who were supposed to be swept over the top by such voters, went down to defeat.

Therefore, now more than ever, please remember that the race is far from over. On the contrary, it is extremely close, and the only way the Obama Democrats can win Colorado (and the election) is by demoralizing and suppressing McCain/Palin turnout. Please forward or publicize this information to friends and coworkers, especially those who may unwisely be paying attention to the cooked poll numbers (read: propaganda to suppress the McCain/Palin vote) being pushed by the pro-Obama mainstream media.

And finally, here’s a fascinating blog post by Hillbuzz, a prominent Hillary Clinton supporter working in the (large but unreported) DeMcCrats effort, Hillary voters for McCain/Palin. It seems that, just as suspected, Obama is poised to lose Pennsylvania and therefore the election, because union and other Democrat voters simply won’t vote for a pencilneck radical who hates them and America, whatever they may say on the record:

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/

Makes perfect sense, really. It was Pennsylvania voters whom Obama insulted behind their backs in San Francisco as “bitter” working people who “cling” to Christianity and their Second Amendment rights. That, and the fact that Pennsylvania Congressman Jack Murtha, he of the shameful libel of the Haditha Marines, recently got caught calling his constituents “racists” and “rednecks.”

Mirthful Murtha the Merciless: libeler and America-hater (i.e. Democrat in good standing).

If the spirit moves you, you can join Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and the NRCC in donating to the campaign of Murtha’s worthy opponent, Col. William “Bill” Russell who now stands an excellent chance of forcibly retiring this poisonous old tub of guts.

Even absent his and Murtha’s stupid mistakes, though, how exactly was Barky Hussein likely to win a state where Hillary trounced him 55%-45% in the primary?

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